Temporary Resident Departures in 2025 and Beyond

Canada Plans Major Increase in Temporary Resident Departures for 2025

The Immigration, Refugees, and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) has set ambitious targets for temporary resident departures in the coming years. In 2025, the agency projects that 1,262,801 temporary residents will leave Canada, a sharp rise compared to the 588,409 departures estimated for 2024. However, these numbers are expected to decrease over the following years, with 1,104,658 departures forecasted for 2026 and 875,129 for 2027.

Will the Projections Hold?

Some experts are skeptical about the feasibility of these figures. Many temporary residents may explore options to remain in Canada, such as filing Humanitarian and Compassionate (H&C) applications, applying for asylum, or utilizing other legal pathways to extend their stay.

Managing the Balance: The Impact on New Admissions

Canada's 2025-2027 Immigration Levels Plan emphasizes maintaining a balance by targeting a 5.0% share of temporary residents within the population. If more temporary residents stay beyond their planned departure dates, the government may respond by reducing new admissions for international students or foreign workers. Essentially, for each individual who stays beyond their permitted time, one fewer will be allowed to enter in the future.

This policy could lead to stricter controls on temporary immigration programs, potentially resulting in greater reductions in international student and foreign worker intake than seen before.

Challenges Ahead for IRCC

To meet these ambitious outflow targets, IRCC may need to take decisive actions, such as:

• Limiting or discontinuing status extensions for current temporary residents.

• Implementing legislative or programmatic changes to restrict pathways to permanent residency.

• Increasing refusal rates for new applications.

• Introducing delays in processing times, potentially causing frustration and voluntary departures.

Looking Forward

Canada’s temporary immigration landscape may face significant shifts in the coming years. These changes could reshape opportunities for international students, foreign workers, and others seeking to build their future in Canada. The stakes are high as the government navigates a complex balance between its population goals and the needs of those contributing to Canada’s economy and society.

The next few years will undoubtedly bring challenging and transformative decisions for Canada’s immigration system.

-Sheridanwale